2013 U.S. Economic Update & Outlook
Mar28

2013 U.S. Economic Update & Outlook

Despite a recent series of positive economic data in the first quarter of 2013, the U.S. economic recovery is still in progress, with significant headwinds that need to be addressed.  The data has not been consistent, nor are other conditions supportive enough, to be able to conclude that there will be solid & significant economic growth above last year.   However, the positive economic, manufacturing, and housing numbers, had all...

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Implications of QE3 and Investment Outlook
Sep17

Implications of QE3 and Investment Outlook

  On 9/13/2012 the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it will: • Purchase additional agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), at a pace of $40 billion per month (quantitative easing). • Extend the average maturity of its existing holdings of securities/Treasuries through to the end of the year. • Reinvest principal payments from agency debt & mortgage-backed securities, back into mortgage-backed...

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China Slowdown And Credit & Real Estate Bubble
Mar22

China Slowdown And Credit & Real Estate Bubble

For the past few years I’ve mentioned in memos to investors and briefly in my more recent 2010 currency review / 2011 outlook article about the world’s over-dependence on China’s fast growing economy, and apprehension about their growing credit & real estate bubble.  However, it seems that many investors have been ostriches, ignoring that the Chinese economy will likely experience an inevitable slowdown, as well...

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Workforce Reduction Announcements – A Useful Unemployment Indicator
Jan25

Workforce Reduction Announcements – A Useful Unemployment Indicator

Job cut announcements made by large corporations are a useful and perhaps better indicator of unemployment than government released labour data.  While official unemployment data provided by Statscan in Canada and the BLS in the U.S. give more precise numbers, they look at historical data.  The numbers then make up the most current unemployment rate.  Similarly, unofficial payroll and jobs data provided by companies such as ADP also...

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Bank of Canada Maintains Rate At 1% – 10/25/2011
Oct25

Bank of Canada Maintains Rate At 1% – 10/25/2011

On 10/25/2011, The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced it is maintaining its overnight interest rate at 1%. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1.25% (1 1/4 percent) and the deposit rate is 0.75% (3/4 percent).

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Operation Twist 2 – Federal Reserve Shifts Bonds
Sep21

Operation Twist 2 – Federal Reserve Shifts Bonds

On 9/21/2011 the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it will: • Extend the average maturity of its existing holdings of Treasuries. • Swap $400 billion worth of shorter-term maturity Treasuries /government bonds with longer-term Treasuries by the end of June 2012. • Reinvest principal payments from agency mortgage-backed debt/securities back into mortgage-backed securities. • Maintain near zero fed funds...

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